US Market Week Ahead: Focus on Employment Data, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and Constellation Brands’ Earnings

July 1, 2024

As the US market enters a holiday-shortened week due to Independence Day on July 4, investors and analysts will closely monitor several significant reports scheduled for release, including the June payrolls, unemployment rate, and updates on manufacturing and services sectors.

The spotlight this week is on the June nonfarm payrolls report, with the consensus forecast suggesting an increase of 180,000 jobs. This indicates a potential cooling of the labor market after May’s robust performance, which saw the US economy add 272,000 jobs, the highest increase in five months.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4% in June, following an increase to this level in May, the highest since January 2022.

Another significant labor market report is the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for May. The forecast suggests a decline in job openings to 7.85 million, following April’s drop to 8.059 million, the lowest level since February 2021.

Additional labor market data to watch includes the average hourly earnings, the labor force participation rate, and the employment change for June. These metrics will provide further insights into wage growth and the overall health of the labor market.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release its manufacturing and services purchasing managers’ indexes (PMI) for June this week.

The ISM manufacturing PMI is forecast to edge up to 49, still indicating contraction but showing slight improvement from May’s unexpected drop to 48.7 from 49.2 in April. The previous reading indicates continued contraction in manufacturing activity, with demand remaining soft and output stable.

The ISM Services PMI is expected to decrease to 52.5 in June, following May’s surge to 53.8, the highest in nine months. This forecast suggests a potential slowdown in the services sector.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes will be released this week, providing more detail on the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep the federal funds target range steady at 5.25%-5.50% for the seventh consecutive meeting in June.

Policymakers have indicated that they do not expect rate reductions until they have greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward the 2% target. They foresee only one rate cut this year and four reductions in 2025, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy.

On the corporate front, the notable earnings report this week comes from Constellation Brands, Inc. (NYSE:STZ) an international beverage alcohol company. Wall Street expects a year-on-year increase in earnings on higher revenue for the company’s results for the quarter ended May.

In summary, this week’s US economic calendar is packed with insights related to labor market metrics, manufacturing and services activity, monetary policy considerations, and  key corporate earnings. Stay informed to make informed decisions!

Disclaimer: ProsperUs Manager of Content Hailey Chung doesn’t own shares of any mentioned companies.


Hailey Chung

As a lifelong learner, Hailey strives to simplify finance for everyday investors, making it relatable and enjoyable. She desires to support investors with various background, whether they are grappling with limited time and resources in seeking financial freedom or are sincere in stewarding their money well as a token of gratitude for God's provision. With a focus on responsible investing, Hailey balances caution and opportunity, believing life's too short to stress over market fluctuations. Beyond the pursuit of profits, she advocates for investments aligned with building a better world. As Manager of Content at ProsperUs, she leverages her journalism background from The Edge Malaysia, where she honed her skills at the capital and corporate desk.

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