7 Top Tips for Investors Scared of a Recession
March 10, 2023
The stock market has been on a down trend, amid concerns of more aggressive US Federal Reserve rate hikes. Eventually, that could cause a recession in the US.
While no one has a crystal ball on whether an impending recession will materialise, investors need to take precautions and build a resilient portfolio to withstand an economic downcycle.
During a recession, the stock market tends to decline, and investors may become risk-averse.
Here are seven top tips that Singapore investors can deploy to effectively manage their portfolio in a recession.
It is essential to diversify your investment portfolio to minimise risk.
Diversification can be achieved by investing in different asset classes such as equities, bonds, commodities, and real estate.
A simple way for investors to achieve instant diversification is through Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs).
2. Defensive stocks
Defensive stocks are usually companies that perform well regardless of the economic cycle.
There is usually constant demand for their products or services so defensive stocks tend to be more stable during the various phases of the business cycle.
This makes them suitable for investors during a recession, where economic activities decline.
Usually, defensive stocks are involved in various sectors such as healthcare, utilities, and consumer staples.
These stocks tend to provide stable returns and are less volatile than other sectors.
In my writeup at the beginning of this year, I highlighted the top 3 recession-proof stocks in Singapore that investors can buy.
3. Value investing
Value investing involves buying stocks that are undervalued by the market but have strong fundamentals.
During a recession, the stock prices of such companies may fall significantly, providing an opportunity for investors to buy them at a discount.
Instead of giving in to “fear, uncertainty and doubt”, or FUD, focus on companies that generate positive operating cash flow, consistent profits and return value to shareholders.
4. Dollar-Cost Averaging
One of the biggest challenges when investing during a recession, or volatile market, is the tendency to overreact to the market.
To avoid allowing your emotions to make decisions for you, investors can look to dollar-cost average (DCA) instead.
This strategy involves investing a fixed amount of money at regular intervals, regardless of market conditions.
By doing so, investors can take advantage of market fluctuations and buy more shares when prices are low.
5. Bond investments
Investing in high-quality bonds can provide a stable source of income during a recession.
Singapore government bonds are considered safe investments and can serve this purpose of stable income.
My colleague, Tim, has written an article on how Singapore investors can buy bonds earlier this year.
He also shared about Singapore Savings Bonds as an alternative to save cash while earning a yield.
6. Real estate
Real estate is generally considered a long-term investment that can provide stable returns over time.
During a recession, property prices may decline, providing an opportunity for investors to purchase properties at a discount.
However, bear in mind that the properties in Singapore property prices continued to climb amid declining sales volumes across all property types, defying economic downside pressures.
The rental market also took off, hitting record highs in the HDB and private property rental markets.
7. Utilise REITs
Singapore Real Estate Investment Trusts (S-REITs) have seen a sharp decline over the last year amid the rising interest rate environment.
As more analysts are expecting higher interest rates for a longer period, this could hurt the S-REITs, especially those with higher borrowing levels.
However, it is worth noting that the average gearing ratio of S-REITs stood at 37.5%, which is well below the regulated gearing ratio limit of 50%.
With an average dividend yield of around 7.2%, this could be an opportune time for investors to use REITs ride out the economic downcycle.
Take advantage of market weakness
It is important to note that every investor’s situation is unique, and there is no one-size-fits-all investment strategy.
However, long-term investors can use the tips mentioned above to ride out the volatility and take advantage of the market weakness to buy some good companies with strong track records, at an attractive price.
It is tempting to try to time the market but we should focus our energies on time spent in the market to take advantage of the overall market movement.
By investing for the long term, investors can generate passive income, build equity, diversify their portfolio, take advantage of tax benefits, and avoid the transaction costs associated with frequent trading.
This is especially true during a recession and bear market.
Disclaimer: ProsperUs Investment Coach Billy Toh doesn’t own shares of any companies mentioned.
Billy is passionate about the capital market and believes in investing for the long haul. Prior to this, he was an economist at RHB Investment Bank, covering Thailand and Philippines market. He also worked as a financial journalist at The Edge Malaysia and has experience working with an asset management firm. Aside from the capital market, Billy loves a good conversation over a cup of coffee, is a fitness enthusiast and a tech geek.