Nike’s Q4 FY2024 Earnings Preview: What Investors Need to Know?

June 25, 2024

Source: SeekingAlpha

As Nike, Inc. (NKE) prepares to release its earnings this week, the market is expecting a muted growth in its fiscal fourth quarter (Q4 FY2024). During the Q3 FY2024, the management shared that the company is focusing on shifting its product lineup to newer styles and accelerating innovation. Despite positive commentary from wholesale customers about new products, Nike continues to face challenges, particularly in the digital channel. Investors will be keenly watching for signs of how Nike plans to accelerate revenue growth, especially in North America and China, during the upcoming earnings presentation, as well as on the guidance for its FY2025 outlook. Top of Form

Key Takeaways

  1. Muted Growth Expectations: Nike’s revenue for F4Q24 is expected to be flat, with a slight year-over-year increase. Adjusted EPS is estimated to be $0.86, slightly above the street’s expectation of $0.84.
  2. Challenges in Digital and International Markets: The digital channel and markets like Europe and China are facing continued softness, with digital app downloads and user activity declining.
  3. Valuation: Despite current challenges, Nike’s valuation remains below its historical average, with a price target of $115, reflecting a potential upside of 22%.

Three Reasons to Invest

  1. Innovation Pipeline: Positive feedback from wholesale partners on Nike’s new innovations, such as the Air Max DN and other new footwear models, suggests potential for growth.
  2. Market Position: Nike remains a strong global brand with significant market share in key regions, particularly in North America and China.
  3. Valuation and Marketing Strength: With a current price target offering a 22% upside and strong marketing efforts, Nike is positioned to potentially rebound from its current challenges.

Three Key Risks

  1. Macroeconomic Pressure: Economic volatility, including inflation and consumer spending shifts, could negatively impact Nike’s sales and profitability.
  2. Competitive Landscape: Increased competition from other athletic brands could pressure Nike’s market share and pricing power.
  3. Inventory Management: Missteps in managing product life cycles and inventory could lead to increased discounting and margin compression.

Keep an eye on Nike’s long-term growth strategy and prospects amidst rising competition

Investors should keep a close eye on Nike’s upcoming Investor Day for clearer guidance on its long-term strategy and growth prospects. While there are significant challenges, the company’s strong brand and innovation pipeline provide potential for upside. Given the potential 22% upside and Nike’s strategic initiatives, it is a favorable time for investors to consider adding Nike to their portfolios.

About Nike, Inc.

Nike, Inc. (NKE) is the world’s largest designer, marketer, and distributor of athletic footwear and apparel. Based in Beaverton, Oregon, the company operates globally under the NIKE, Jordan, and Converse brands. Nike’s products are sold through a vast network including wholesale partners, retail stores, outlets, and digital channels.

Disclaimer: ProsperUs Head of Content & Investment Lead Billy Toh doesn’t own shares of the company mentioned.

Billy Toh

Billy is deeply committed to making investment accessible and understandable to everyone, a principle that drives his engagement with the capital markets and his long-term investment strategies. He is currently the Head of Content & Investment Lead for Prosperus and a SGX Academy Trainer. His extensive experience spans roles as an economist at RHB Investment Bank, focusing on the Thailand and Philippines markets, and as a financial journalist at The Edge Malaysia. Additionally, his background includes valuable time spent in an asset management firm. Outside of finance, Billy enjoys meaningful conversations over coffee, keeps fit as a fitness enthusiast, and has a keen interest in technology.

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